Forecast Performance Ledger
This page documents a selection of resolved probabilistic forecasts made prior to outcome realization on the Metaculus forecasting platform.
Entries shown are drawn from resolved questions across multiple domains. Screenshots are included as primary evidence. This page is published as a static record and archived to preserve timing and integrity.
Across the entries shown below, the initial probability distributions were published materially in advance of outcome realization and prior to convergence of expert or community consensus. In several cases, first predictions preceded consensus stabilization by approximately 3 days to 3 weeks, with probability mass placed near the eventual outcome at the time of initial publication.
Macro
Question: 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield, March 19 2025
Domain: Rates / Macro
Result: 4.007
Performance: Outperformed baseline score
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
Question: India Consumer Food Price Index (YoY), February 2025
Domain: Inflation / Macro
Result: 3.75
Performance: Outperformed community and baseline scores
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
Question: European Union Gas Storage Capacity Full, February 12 2025 Domain: Energy / Macro
Result: 46.58%
Performance: Outperformed baseline score
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
Geopolitics
Question: Total number of aircraft violating Taiwan ADIZ, Feb 15–Mar 15 2025 Domain: Geopolitics / Security
Result: 295
Performance: Outperformed community and baseline scores
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
Climate
Question: Acres Burned in California During 2025, as of March 4 2025
Domain: Climate / Environmental Risk
Result: 57.687k acres
Performance: Outperformed community and baseline scores
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
Question: Texas Geographic Area Under Moderate Drought or Worse (D1–D4), March 18 2025
Domain: Climate / Environmental Risk Result: 62.46%
Performance: Outperformed community and baseline scores
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
AI / Tech / Equities
Question: NVIDIA Stock Closing Value, March 28 2025 (conditional on OpenAI o3 release outcome)
Domain: Equities / Technology
Result: $109.67
Performance: Outperformed community and baseline scores
Source: Metaculus (resolved)
Disclaimer
This page is a factual record of resolved probabilistic forecasts and related scoring outputs sourced from the third-party forecasting platform Metaculus. All forecasts shown were submitted during the 2025 Bridgewater Associates / Metaculus tournament. This page is not intended to provide investment advice, performance projections, or methodological explanation. No inference should be drawn beyond the information explicitly presented. This page is published as a static record and archived to preserve timing and integrity.